What being public means
On a blockchain, when and how much moved from which address to which is fully public. That information is unavailable in banking, which is why a field grew around analysing it. What is public, though, is addresses and amounts; who an address belongs to is not recorded. There are traces without names.
How ownership is inferred
Analysis services label addresses based on known exchange addresses and repeating patterns. Those labels are inferences rather than established facts, which is why services sometimes classify the same movement differently. Treating one wallet as one person is also imprecise, since people use several wallets and exchange wallets hold the assets of many users mixed together.
Is an exchange inflow a sell signal
Assets entering an exchange are commonly read as preparation to sell and leaving as long-term storage. As a direction that has some logic, but individual cases frequently diverge. Moving collateral, swapping into another asset, and an exchange reorganising its own wallets all look the same on chain.
- An exchange inflow cannot be declared preparation to sell
- Internal exchange movements also record as large transfers
- The same funds passing through several wallets get counted repeatedly
- Labels are inferences and differ between services
What is still worth watching
Overall trends carry more information than any single movement: whether the total held on exchanges has fallen over months, or how the share of long-dormant supply is changing. One large transfer is an event; a direction over months describes a state.
Your wallet is public too
The same property applies to you. The moment one address is linked to you, its entire transaction history and balance are exposed. Posting an address you withdrew to in a public place creates that link. Where privacy matters, separating addresses by purpose is the better practice.
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